October e-way bills slip from quarter end peak

Data from GSTN, the company that processes GST returns, showed that over 7.68 crore e-way bills were raised in October, compared to over 8.4 crore electronic permits raised in September. E-way bills, taken by analysts as a high frequency indicator of consumption and production trends, has remained well above 7 crore since March, showing robust goods shipment across the country and witnessed sustained growth since May till September. 

Experts did not see the slip in October as worrisome. “The decline in GST e-way bills is likely to be on account of the holidays during the festive period,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at rating agency ICRA Ltd.  

GST revenue collections in October, a function of sales in the previous month, became the second highest at ₹1.52 trillion, the finance ministry had reported on Monday.  

The latest S&P Global India manufacturing PMI released on 1 November showed that growth in the Indian manufacturing industry remained robust, showing historically marked expansions in factory orders and quantities of purchases, while production growth outpaced its long-run average despite softening to a four-month low. Manufacturing PMI was up from 55.1 in September to 55.3 in October indicating a stronger improvement in the health of the sector, S&P had said on Monday. A reading of more than 50 shows growth from the previous month. The PMI data is based on a survey of around 400 manufacturers, while e-way bill data is based on actual transactions. 

Experts also believe that pent up demand in the last two years and stabilisation of economic activities are driving consumption and GST revenue receipts. Large state economies like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka have reported double digit growth in GST revenue receipts in October. 

Industrial output data from the government had shown that manufacturing sector which saw a sharp 20% jump in May this fiscal has since tapered off as the base effect waned and showed a small degree of contraction in August. Policy makers believe that India’s economy is on a strong footing although external factors pose a downside risk as coordinated action by central banks around the world is leading to a surge in cost of funds while energy prices are witnessing sharp volatility. The RBI last month lowered its forecast for economic growth to 7% from its earlier forecast of 7.2% as headwinds from extended geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and possible decline in the external component of aggregate demand could pose downside risks.